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    第一章 一位秘密警察的舞会

    1. Strobe Talbott, The Russia Hand (New York: Random House, 2002), p 416.

    2. Interview with Konstantin Kosachev, 16 December 2009.

    3. Talbott, p 397.

    4. Stephen F. Cohen, Failed Crusade: America and the Tragedy of Post-Orgmunist Russia (New York: W. W. Norton & Co, 2000), p xii.

    5. Interview with Toby Gati, RIA Novosti, 22 March 2011.

    6. Vladimir Putin, Ot pervogo litsa (http:\/\/archive.kremlin.ru\/ articles\/bookchapter3.shtml – last accessed 7 September 2011).

    7. For a good account of this part of Putin’s career, see Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the End of Revolution (New York: Lisa Drew, 2005), pp 47ff.

    8. Ibid., p 53.

    第二章 向西方“求爱”

    1. Interview with George Robertson, 9 March 2011.

    2. Interview with Jonathan Powell, 9 March 2011.

    3. Guardian, 18 April 2000.

    4. Interview with Mikhail Margelov, 29 April 2010.

    5. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 14 April 2011.

    6. Interview with Stephen Hadley, 24 January 2011.

    7. Interview with Colin Powell, 3 March 2011.

    8. Interview with Igor Ivanov, 11 December 2010.

    9. Interview with Sergei Ivanov, 29 October 2010.

    10. Yelena Tregubova, Bayki kremlevskogo diggera (Moscow: Ad Marginem, 2003), pp 160ff.

    11.Bob Woodward, Bush at War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002), p 119.

    12. Interview with Colin Powell, 3 March 2011.

    13. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 20 June 2011.

    14. Bolton interview with Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, quoted in Kremlin Rising, p 131.

    15. Interview with Sergei Ivanov, 29 October 2010.

    16. White House translation, quoted in Woodward, Bush at War, p118.

    17. In 2009 the Russians finally tried to force the Kyrgyz government to eject the Americans from Manas by offering loans worth $2 billion. The price paid by the US to be allowed to stay was a quadrupling in the rent and the renaming of the air base into a less permanent-sounding ‘Transit Centre’。

    18. John Bolton, Surrender is not an Option (New York: Threshold Editions, 2007), p 71.

    19. Interview with Gerhard Sch?der, 8 June 2011.

    20. Interview with George Robertson, 9 March 2011.

    21. Interview with Sergei Prikhodko, 30 June 2011.

    22. Interview with George Robertson, 9 March 2011.

    23. Interview with Colin Powell, 17 May 2011.

    24. Interview with Stephen Hadley, 24 January 2011.

    25. Interview with Igor Ivanov, 11 December 2010.

    26. Interview with Colin Powell, 17 May 2011.

    27. Interview with Sergei Ivanov, 29 October 2010.

    28. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 20 June 2011.

    第三章 经济改革之战

    1. Interview with Alexei Kudrin, 14 December 2010.

    2. Interview with German Gref, 7 December 2010.

    3. Interview with Andrei Illarionov, 27 January 2011.

    4. Interview with German Gref, 7 December 2010.

    5. Mikhail Kasyanov, Bez Putina (Moscow: Novaya gazeta, 2009), p 216.

    6. Interview with Mikhail Kasyanov, 16 February 2011.

    7. See Marshall Goldman, Petrostate (New York: OUP, 2008), chapter 5.

    8. Interview with Vladimir Milov, 16 February 2011.

    第四章 阴暗面

    1. Interview with Viktor Shenderovich, 14 December 2010.

    2. Komsomolskaya Pravda, 11 February 2000.

    3. Novaya gazeta, 27 March 2000, reprinted in Anna Politkovskaya, Nothing but the Truth (London: Harvill Secker, 2010).

    4. Mikhail Kasyanov, Bez Putina (Moscow: Novaya gazeta, 2009), p 217.

    5. Interview with German Gref, 7 December 2010.

    6. David E. Hoffman, The Oligarchs (Oxford, Public Affairs Ltd, 2002), p 449.

    7. John Browne, Beyond Business (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2010), p 145.

    8. Interview with German Gref, 7 December 2010.

    9. Martin Sixsmith, Putin’s Oil (London: Continuum, 2010), p 52.

    10. Interview with Mikhail Kasyanov, 16 February 2011.

    11. My account of this meeting is based on interviews with those present, on (edited) video of the event and on the versions given by Sixsmith, Putin’s Oil, and Andrei Kolesnikov in Kommersant, 20 February 2003.

    12. Interview with Leonid Nevzlin, 14 May 2011.

    13. Interview with Andrei Illarionov, 27 January 2011.

    14. Interview with Mikhail Kasyanov, 16 February 2011.

    15. Kasyanov, Bez Putina, pp 199ff.

    16. Quoted in Sixsmith, Putin’s Oil, p 153.

    17. Observer, 2 November 2003.

    第五章 老欧洲,新欧洲

    1. Interview with George Robertson, 9 March 2011.

    2. Interview with Jonathan Powell, 9 March 2011.

    3. Interview with Nicholas Burns, 15 July 2010.

    4. Interview with Nicholas Burns, 21 January 2011.

    5. Interview with Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, 20 June 2011.

    6. Die Zeit, 5 April 2001.

    7. Interview with Gerhard Sch?der, 8 June 2011.

    8. Interview with Alexander Kwniewski, 24 November 2010.

    9. Interview with Igor Ivanov, 11 December 2010.

    10. Interview with Nicholas Burns, 21 January 2011.

    11. Interview with Sergei Ivanov, 29 October 2010.

    12. Interview with Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, 20 June 2011.

    13. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 14 April 2011.

    第六章 第二任期

    1. Interview with Igor Ivanov, 11 December 2010.

    2. Interview with Nino Burjanadze, 29 March 2011.

    3. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili, 9 May 2005.

    4. See Thomas de Waal, The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), pp 194–5.

    5. Interview with Colin Powell, 3 March 2011.

    6. de Waal, The Caucasus, p 197.

    7. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili, 31 March 2011.

    8. Wall Street Journal, 30 August 2008, Daily Telegraph, 23 August 2008.

    9. de Waal, The Caucasus, p 199.

    10. Interview with Eduard Kokoity, 4 April 2011.

    11. The cause of the fire, which left only the outer walls intact, has never been fully established. The destruction of the historic building (erected after the Napoleonic fire of 1812) provided an excuse for its total reconstruction, which was criticised by conservationists for distorting the original architectural vision.

    12. Komsomolskaya Pravda, 28 September 2004.

    13. Surkov on Chechen television, 8 July 2011, quoted by Interfax and Reuters.

    14. Dmitry Trenin, ‘Moscow the Muscular’: The Loneliness of an Aspiring Power Center (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center Briefing, volume 11, issue 1, January 2009).

    第七章 四面树敌

    1. Interview with Leonid Kuchma, 22 March 2011.

    2. Interview with John E. Herbst, 16 May 2011.

    3. Interview with Gleb Pavlovsky, 18 February 2011.

    4. Interview with Sergei Markov, 30 June 2011.

    5. Interview with Oleh Rybachuk, 28 November 2010.

    6. Interview with Viktor Yushchenko, 29 November 2010.

    7. Interview with Alexander Kwniewski, 24 November 2010.

    8. Interview with Leonid Kuchma, 22 March 2011.

    9. Interview with Alexander Kwniewski, 24 November 2010.

    10. Gleb Pavlovsky, Nezavisimaya gazeta, 7 December 2004.

    11. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 7 December 2004.

    12. Interview with Tony Brenton, 5 April 2011.

    13. ICNL (The International Journal of Not-for-Profit Law), volume 9, issue 1, December 2006.

    14. Interview with Lyudmila Alexeyeva, 23 February 2011.

    15. Interview with Jonathan Powell, 9 March 2011.

    16. Interview with Mikhail Kasyanov, 16 February 2011.

    17. Interview with Viktor Yushchenko, 29 November 2010.

    18. Interview with Damon Wilson, 2 March 2011.

    19. Interview with Oleh Rybachuk, 28 November 2010.

    20. Interview with John E. Herbst, 16 May 2011.

    第八章 新的冷战

    1. Interview with Stephen Hadley, 24 January 2011.

    2. Rather was at the centre of a controversy after publicising documents critical of President Bush’s military service during the 2004 presidential campaign. The documents’ authenticity was later disputed, and in November Rather announced he would retire the following March, but there was never any suggestion that Bush had put pressure on CBS to fire him.

    3. Interview with Damon Wilson, 2 March 2011.

    4. Interviews with Nicholas Burns, 21 January 2011, and Condoleezza Rice, 20 June 2011.

    5. Wikileaks cable in the Guardian, 1 December 2010.

    6. Interview with Oleg Mitvol, 14 April 2010.

    7. These events are reconstructed from interviews with Condoleezza Rice, Bill Burns, Sergei Ivanov, Igor Ivanov, Sergei Lavrov and others.

    8. Some of Litvinenko’s colleagues later ‘returned’ to the FSB fold and accused him of having tricked them into ****** this appearance. For an excellent account of all the conspiracy theories and intrigues surrounding the case, see Martin Sixsmith, The Litvinenko File (London: Macmillan, 2007).

    9. Yelena Tregubova, http:\/\/viperson.ru\/wind.php?ID=413357& soch=1 (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    10. Interview with David Miliband, 7 July 2011.

    11. Interview with Sergei Lavrov, 25 October 2010.

    12. Sixsmith, The Litvinenko File, pp 303ff.

    第九章 媒体、导弹、梅德韦杰夫

    1. Dmitry Peskov, interviewed on Dozhd television, 4 October 2011.

    2. US Orgpanies are obliged to declare fees received from foreign principals for ‘political activities’。 For the period January to June 2008, the fee declared by Ketchum and its partner The Washington Group for work done in North America and Japan on behalf of the Russian Federation was $2,436,600. GPlus received a similar sum for its work in Europe, ****** a total of almost $5 million for that six-month period. The initial contract for the G8 year has been rolled over year by year, with the fees for each new contract varying somewhat.

    3. Dmitry Peskov, interviewed on Dozhd television, 4 October 2011.

    4. See, for example, The New Times, 16 March 2009.

    5. See Luke Harding, Mafia State (London: Guardian Books, 2011).

    6. Lilia Shevtsova, Lonely Power (Moscow: Carnegie Endowment, 2010), pp 98ff.

    7. Interviews with Dan Fata, 1 March 2011, and Eric Edelman, 4 March 2011.

    8. Dmitri Trenin, ‘Moscow the Muscular’: The Loneliness of an Aspiring Power Center (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center Briefing, volume 11, issue 1, January 2009).

    9. Interview with Sergei Prikhodko, 30 June 2011.

    10. Off-the-record interview with senior Russian official.

    11. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 30 June 2011.

    12. Interview with Stephen Hadley, 24 January 2011.

    13. Interview with Eric Edelman, 4 March 2011.

    14. Interview with Robert Gates, 16 May 2011.

    15. Interview with Sergei Lavrov, 25 October 2010.

    16. Interview with Anatoly Antonov, 2 April 2011.

    17. Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Milov, Putin: Itogi (Moscow: Novaya gazeta, 2008).

    18. Michael McFaul and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, ‘The Myth of the Authoritarian Model’, Foreign Affairs, volume 87, number 1, January\/February 2008.

    第十章 走向战争

    1. Interview with Damon Wilson, 2 March 2011.

    2. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili, 31 March 2011.

    3. Interview with Jean-David Levitte, 12 March 2011.

    4. Interview with Robert Gates, 16 May 2011.

    5. Interview with Stephen Hadley, 24 January 2011.

    6. Interview with Radoslaw Sikorski, 25 November 2010.

    7. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 20 June 2011.

    8. Interview with Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 20 June 2011.

    9. Angus Roxburgh, ‘Georgia Fights for Nationhood’, National Geographic, volume 181, number 5, May 1992.

    10. Quoted in Thomas de Waal, The Caucasus: An Introduction (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010), p 208.

    11. Interview with Damon Wilson, 2 March 2011.

    12. http:\/\/www.rferl.org\/content\/Did_Russia_Plan_Its_War_In_ Georgia __\/1191460.html (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    13. Interview with Giorgi Bokeria, 30 March 2011.

    14. Interview with Batu Kutelia, 29 March 2011.

    15. Interview with Nino Burjanadze, 29 March 2011.

    16. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili, 31 March 2011.

    17. Interview with Sergei Prikhodko, 30 June 2011.

    18. I do not regard Saakashvili as a particularly reliable witness. His interview for the TV series contained at least two ‘memories’ that are verifiably false. He has a clear tendency to embellish stories to his own advantage.

    19. Interview on Ekho Moskvy, published 7 August 2011.

    20. Medvedev interview with Russia Today, PIK-TV and Ekho Moskvy, published 5 August 2011.

    21. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 20 June 2011.

    22. Interview with Radoslaw Sikorski, 25 November 2010.

    23. I accept that this is an oversimplification. The ethnic balance of Abkhazia changed hugely over the decades: the Abkhaz were once the majority ethnic group, and huge numbers of Georgians and Russians were brought into the region during the Soviet period – a deliberate Georgian policy, the Abkhaz say, to turn them into a minority.

    24. Interview with Jean-David Levitte, 12 March 2011.

    25. Medvedev interview with Russia Today, etc, 5 August 2011.

    26. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, 14 April 2011.

    27. Interview with Sergei Lavrov, 25 October 2010.

    28. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili, 31 March 2011.

    29. Interview with Robert Gates, 16 May 2011.

    30. Interview with Stephen Hadley, 24 January 2011.

    31. In a live television phone-in programme on 4 December 2008 Putin was asked by a viewer, ‘Is it true that you promised to hang Saakashvili by “one place”?’ Putin paused for a moment, smiled, and replied: ‘Why by “one”?’

    第十一章 重新设定与西方的关系

    1. Interview with Michael McFaul, 15 April 2011.

    2. Interview with Sergei Ryabkov, 27 October 2010.

    3. Interview with Sergei Prikhodko, 30 June 2011.

    4. Interview with James Jones, 4 March 2011.

    第十二章 强人和他的朋友

    1. Interview with Alexei Kudrin, 14 December 2010.

    2. Interview with German Gref, 7 December 2010.

    3. Sergei Guriev and Aleh Tsyvinski, ‘Challenges Facing the Russian Economy after the Crisis’, in Sergei Guriev, Anders Aslund and Andrew Kuchins (eds), Russia After the Global Economic Crisis (The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2010), p 21.

    4. Interview with Arkady Dvorkovich, 29 June 2011.

    5. Kommersant, No. 124, 13 July 2010.

    6. Currently available only in Russian and Swedish.

    7. http:\/\/www.doingbusiness.org\/rankings (last accessed 7 September 2011). The top ten countries for ease of doing business are, in order: Singapore, Hong Kong, New Zealand, UK, USA, Denmark, Canada, Norway, Ireland, Australia.

    8. http:\/\/www.gazeta.ru\/politics\/2011\/05\/24_a_3627341.shtml (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    9. http:\/\/news.kremlin.ru\/transcripts\/9368 (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    10. Report by INDEM foundation, quoted in V. Milov, B. Nemtsov, V. Ryzhkov and O. Shorina (eds), Putin. Korruptsiya. Nezavisimyy ekspertnyy doklad (Moscow, 2011).

    11. http:\/\/ eng.kremlin.ru\/news\/752 (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    12. http:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/politics\/news\/1247042\/skandal_s_ zakupkami_ tomografov (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    13. http:\/\/ ria.ru\/trend\/belevitin_case_02062011\/ (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    14. Financial Times, 12 November 2010.

    15. http:\/\/en.rian.ru\/russia\/20110706\/165063309.html (last accessed 8 September 2011).

    16. See http:\/\/russian-untouchables.Org\/eng\/ (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    17. Guardian, 21 December 2007. In a different interview, with Die Welt, Belkovsky put Putin’s stake in Gunvor at 50 rather than 7 per cent.

    18. Putin’s own website reprints an article from the opposition newspaper Novaya gazeta about the prime minister’s Orgwork of business friends and interests: http:\/\/premier.gov.ru\/pda\/eng\/ premier\/press\/ru\/4558\/ (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    19. Financial Times, 15 May 2008.

    20. Milov, Nemtsov, Ryzhkov and Shorina (eds), Putin. Korruptsiya. Nezavisimyy ekspertnyy doklad.

    21. Guardian, 1 December 2010.

    22. http:\/\/ navalny.livejournal.Org\/526563.html.

    23. http:\/\/ rospil.info\/results.

    24. See Julia Joffe’s excellent account of Navalny’s work in The New Yorker, 4 April 2011.

    第十三章 双人驾驶学

    1. Interview with Dimitry Muratov, 14 December 2010.

    2. Interview with Arkady Dvorkovich, 29 June 2011.

    3. Interview with Olga Kryshtanovskaya in Svobodnaya pressa, 8 February 2011, svpressa.ru\/politic\/article\/38451 (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    4. http:\/\/www.bfm.ru\/news\/2011\/08\/29\/dvorkovich-zubkov-ne-ujdet-iz-gazproma-do-1-oktjabrja.html (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    5. Guardian, 1 July 2011.

    6. Financial Times, 20 June 2011.

    7. http:\/\/www.rferl.org\/content\/medvedev_talks_reform_in_st_ petersburg\/24238558.html (last accessed 7 September 2011).

    结束语

    1. I notice that my book about the Gorbachev years ended very hopefully. See Angus Roxburgh, The Second Russian Revolution (London: BBC Books, 1991).

    2. Sunday Times, 14 August 2011.

    3. http:\/\/valdaiclub.Org\/history\/29960.html – 18 August 2011 (last accessed 7 September 2011).

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